Ten asymmetric calls from our desk for 2026 — including the L1 we think gets re-rated, the memecoin narrative coming back, and the macro print that ends the chop.
Every January our desk publishes a short list of asymmetric calls — trades where we see the upside being a multiple of the downside if we're right, and where being wrong costs us a defined, manageable amount. These are not predictions in the horoscope sense. Each one has a kill criterion attached.
1. Bitcoin reclaims a new all-time high inside H1 and consolidates above it for at least eight weeks. Catalyst: spot ETF flows turn structurally positive again as TradFi allocators rebalance into year-end performance.
2. Solana flips Ethereum on weekly DEX volume and stays there for at least one full quarter. The retail flow on Solana has compounded for four straight cycles with no signs of slowing.
3. A non-USD-denominated stablecoin (most likely EURC or a Hong Kong dollar peg) crosses $5B in supply. Regulatory tailwinds in the EU and Asia favor this more than the market is pricing.
4. The memecoin meta returns — but on a chain that isn't Solana. The rotation into the next launchpad ecosystem is a 10x trade for whoever picks correctly. We have a candidate but we're not putting it in print yet.
5. At least one Bitcoin L2 ships a credible bridge and sees $1B+ TVL. The category has been left for dead, which is exactly the setup we like.
6. Real-world assets (RWA) cross $50B in tokenized form, led by tokenized treasuries. This is the slow trend that compounds in the background while the market chases the loud one.
7. A major US bank announces native crypto custody for retail. The regulatory window is opening; whoever moves first captures the brand premium.
8. ETH/BTC reclaims 0.05 and holds it for two months. The setup is technical and macro: ETH staking yield becomes the cleanest carry trade in crypto if the Fed cuts.
9. At least one prediction-market protocol (Polymarket, Kalshi, or a successor) crosses $10B in annual volume. Election years are the on-ramp; the product itself is the moat.
10. The Fear & Greed Index prints 'Extreme Greed' (75+) for at least 30 consecutive days during 2026. We will use that as the signal to start scaling out aggressively.
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